In 2024, my country’s net fruit imports will be US$10.9 billion. Although my country is currently a net importer of fruit, fruit was once an important export product for my country. After joining the WTO, my country’s fruit trade surplus has long been stable at more than US$1 billion, reaching a historical peak of US$3 billion in 2008. In 2018, my country’s fruit trade deficit appeared for the first time, reaching US$1.26 billion. As time goes by, the fruit trade deficit continues to expand, and in 2023 the deficit is nearly US$11.3 billion, a record high. What is the main reason for my country’s transformation from a net exporter of fruit to a net importer?

　　Free trade agreements have helped accelerate the import of fruits. Data comparison shows that my country’s fruit trade deficit mainly comes from Thailand, Chile, Vietnam, New Zealand, Peru, the Philippines, Cambodia and other countries, all of which are friendly trade countries that have signed free trade agreements with China. Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia are all ASEAN member states. In January 2004, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Early Harvest Plan was implemented, and fruits were the first agricultural products to be taxed. In October 2006, the China-Chile Free Trade Agreement was officially implemented, and most fruit products such as cherries could achieve zero tariffs within 10 years. In October 2008, the China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement was officially implemented, and New Zealand fruit products had achieved zero tariffs before 2016. In March 2010, the China-Peru Free Trade Agreement was officially implemented, and most Peruvian fruit products could achieve zero tariffs within 5 to 10 years. By 2018, most fruit products in these countries had achieved zero import tariffs. Free trade agreements have promoted the development of fruit trade and accelerated my country’s fruit imports.

　　The fruit industry faces structural problems of supply and demand. Similar to many agricultural industries, my country’s fruit industry also faces structural problems of supply and demand. Specifically, it is manifested in the following aspects: First, the production varieties are relatively concentrated. Although my country is a major fruit producer, the varieties are mainly concentrated in some garden fruits. In 2022, my country’s fruit production reached 312.962 million tons, of which the production of garden fruits such as citrus, apples, and pears accounted for 72.9%, and the production of melons and fruits such as watermelons accounted for 27.1%. Second, the effective utilization rate is low. Data show that in 2022, my country’s apparent fruit consumption (the output of the year plus the net import volume) reached 316.934 million tons, of which fresh consumption accounted for about 24.4%; processed consumption accounted for about 10%; and feed consumption accounted for about 10%. The effective utilization rate of fruits nationwide is less than 50%, and the number of fruit losses is large. Third, the supply of high-end products is insufficient. With the improvement of residents’ income level, domestic consumers’ demand for high-quality fruits is growing. Although the “fruit basket project” has cultivated a large number of domestic boutique fruit brands, it still cannot meet the structural demand of the market and instead obtains supply from the international market. Data shows that Thailand and Chile are the biggest “contributors” to my country’s fruit trade deficit. In 2018, my country’s fruit trade deficit with Thailand and Chile expanded by US$930 million and US$690 million respectively, of which 83.9% of the trade deficit with Thailand came from fresh durian, and 65.6% of the trade deficit with Chile came from fresh cherries. After 2018, my country’s fruit trade deficit with Thailand and Chile continued to expand, reaching US$6.59 billion and US$3.23 billion respectively by 2023, of which the trade deficit with Thailand’s fresh durian was US$4.57 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.9%; the trade deficit with Chile’s fresh cherries was US$2.55 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.6%. The supply of high-end products such as durian and cherry is highly dependent on foreign countries, and the market gap provides impetus for imports.

　　In order to promote the development of my country’s fruit industry and enhance the competitive advantage of product exports, all parties need to work together. First, provide policy support and make good use of free trade agreements. Relevant departments have issued relevant policies to provide policy support and guidance for the development of the fruit industry; at the same time, strengthen the publicity of the preferential policies of the free trade agreement, help more export companies make good use of the rules of the free trade agreement, and expand fruit exports. Secondly, promote industrial upgrading and promote diversified development. Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the fruit industry, optimize the variety structure, and develop new fruit varieties; improve production technology, develop deep processing of fruits; launch new product forms, increase the added value of fruits, and continuously meet the increasingly diversified needs of consumers. Finally, expand international cooperation and strengthen brand building. Actively participate in international trade cooperation, expand international channels through domestic and foreign exhibition platforms, promotion activities, etc., and lead domestic fruits to “go global”. At the same time, we must pay attention to brand building, explore the regional characteristics and brand attributes of products, and enhance the international visibility and market influence of brands.